The Dilemma of the Guatemala Summit for Daniel Ortega

Coming on the heals of the Group of Rio Summit, the upcoming Guatemala Summit will help allay the perception that Honduras remains some sort of pariah in Latin America and the Caribbean.

By Marco Cáceres
Whether by accident or design, the summit with the presidents of Central America proposed by the US State Department for Friday in Guatemala City is a masterful geopolitical stroke that will both speed up the process of reuniting Honduras with its regional neighbors and force Nicaragua to choose whether it wants to align itself more with Central America or with Hugo Chávez and the ALBA alliance, which is more of a South American construct. It is notable that Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega is the only Central American president who has not confirmed he will attend the summit. (2/27/10)

One of the items on the summit's agenda is Honduras and its reintegration into the community of the nations of the Americas. Honduras' membership in the Organization of American States (OAS) was suspended shortly after the ousting of President Zelaya on June 28, 2009. However, since the election of Porfirio Lobo as president on November 29 and his inauguration on January 27, the governments of several OAS countries have voiced support for welcoming Honduras back to the fold sooner rather than later.

One of the strongest advocates for Honduras of late has been Costa Rican President Óscar Arias, who is not normally considered to be Honduras' best friend. He has been consistent in his view that it would be a mistake to continue to isolate Honduras, and last week at the Group of Rio Summit in Mexico he expressed his disappointment that President Lobo had not been invited to participate. Even OAS General Secretary José Miguel Insulza has hinted that Honduras' suspension may be overturned as early as June when the OAS General Assembly meets in Lima, Perú.

Coming on the heals of the Group of Rio Summit, the upcoming Guatemala Summit will help allay the perception that Honduras remains some sort of pariah in Latin America and the Caribbean. It will be an opportunity for President Lobo to be seen shaking hands and rubbing shoulders with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and all the other presidents of Central America, thus accelerating the official acceptance of Honduras. This presents a dilemma for President Ortega, who has repeated stated that he will not recognize the Lobo government and normalize relations with Honduras. If he doesn't show up for the summit, though, he suddenly begins to look like the odd man out, not President Lobo... and this only weakens Nicaragua's position in the region. Nicaragua already has to tread carefully when it comes to Honduras because 50 percent of its exports go through Honduran territory and out from its ports.

On the other hand, if Mr. Ortega decides to play along and shows up at the summit, he sets himself up to look as if he's backpedaling and betraying his friend Mr. Zelaya, who is starting to get itchy sitting around in Santo Domingo with his wife. Also, the move could send mixed signals to Mr. Chávez and the other ALBA presidents, initiating some misunderstandings and perhaps even cracks in the alliance.

Mr. Ortega may try to be clever and use the summit to emulate Mr. Chávez's recently stated willingness to recognize the Lobo government so long as Mr. Zelaya is allowed to return to Honduras to play an active political role unencumbered. But to pull that off without looking whiney, awkward, and obstructive would take the skill of a great statesman, which Mr. Ortega is not. (2/27/10) (photo of Daniel Ortega courtesy Internet)